Bold claim: plastic waste from packaging could be almost wiped out within 15 years through widespread reuse and return programs. New research suggests that the 66 million tonnes of annual plastic pollution entering the environment could be nearly eliminated by 2040 if these strategies are adopted at scale.
This conclusion comes from Breaking the Plastic Wave 2025, the most comprehensive assessment to date of the global plastic system. The Pew Charitable Trusts led the study with researchers from Imperial College London and the University of Oxford. The report highlights that plastic—once hailed as a breakthrough material—poses risks to public health, economies, and the planet’s future unless transformative changes are made.
If no action is taken, global plastic pollution could more than double in the next 15 years, reaching about 280 million metric tonnes annually. That amount is comparable to a dump truck full of plastic waste arriving somewhere in the world every second, with packaging accounting for a large share of the rise.
The study warns this surge would affect virtually every aspect of life—from economic stability and public health to climate change. It predicts higher levels of land, water, and air pollution, greater exposure to toxic chemicals, and more disease, alongside increased ingestion and entanglement risks for wildlife.
Plastic production—driven by fossil fuels—also looks set to climb, rising by roughly 52% from 450 million tonnes this year to 680 million tonnes in 2040. This growth would outpace the ability of waste-management systems to cope, exacerbating waste problems.
Packaging is the main driver of rising plastic production. In 2025, packaging used more plastic than any other sector and is projected to remain the largest contributor by 2040.
The single largest source of plastic waste globally comes from packaging that is used once and discarded, much of which isn’t recyclable. In 2025, packaging accounted for about one-third (33%) of global plastic waste, releasing roughly 66 million tonnes into the environment annually.
However, the report identifies a path to near-elimination of packaging pollution. Widespread deposit-return schemes and reuse—where consumers return empty containers or use refillable cups at stores and cafés—could dramatically cut pollution. When combined with bans on certain polymers and substitution with alternatives, overall plastic pollution could drop by as much as 97% over the next 15 years.
According to Winnie Lau, project director of Preventing Plastic Pollution at Pew, two main levers drive this potential decline: expansive reuse and return systems (the larger contributor, responsible for about two-thirds of the pollution reduction) and reductions in plastic packaging production paired with the use of non-plastic materials such as cardboard, glass, and metal, as well as targeted polymer bans.
Beyond environmental damage, everyday exposure to plastic—from children playing with toys to communities near petrochemical facilities—poses health risks. The report notes that plastics contain more than 16,000 intentionally added chemicals, plus numerous contaminants.
Research already links many of these substances to health concerns, including hormonal disruption, reduced fertility, low birth weight, cognitive and developmental changes in children, diabetes, and heightened cardiovascular and cancer risk factors.
The global plastic system currently contributes substantial greenhouse gas emissions, projected to rise from 2.7 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2025 to 4.2 gigatonnes in 2040—an increase of about 58%. If plastic production were a country, its emissions would rank as the third-largest on the planet by 2040, trailing only China and the United States.
Yet transformation is achievable. The authors contend that with improvements in waste management, reductions in production, and robust reuse and return systems, plastic pollution could be cut by about 83%, greenhouse gas emissions by 38%, and health impacts by roughly 54%. The study also estimates this shift could save governments around $19 billion (about £14 billion) annually in waste collection and disposal costs by 2040.
There is still hope, the authors emphasize. A coordinated global effort could overhaul the plastic system and eliminate packaging pollution within a generation, but decision-makers must prioritize people and the planet. The question remains: will policymakers, businesses, and consumers rally to adopt these reusable, low-waste approaches, or will inertia keep the status quo?
